As Mahmoud Salem observed in a prescient piece published by The Daily Beast on May 23, 2012, he believed that candidates who were perceived as tacking to the center, such as `Amr Musa, Egyptia’s former foreign minister and head of the League of Arab States, and `Abd al-Mun`im Abu al-Futuh, the breakaway candidate from the Muslim Brotherhood, were not likely to do well in the context of Egypt’s fractured electorate. 

While it is not clear who will win the runoff between Ahmed Shafik, the unabashed champion of the old regime, and Muhammad Morsi, the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, almost everyone believes that Shafik, by hook or crook, will win.  Assuming this is the case, how did it come to be that the beautiful Egyptian Revolution was so successfully contained, undermined, and then captured by the regime?

According to this report in the New York Times, voter turnout in Egypt is very low, and consists almost entirely of older Egyptians.  This suggests that Ahmed Shafik will likely win, perhaps by a very large margin.  What will the consequences be of a Shafik victory for Egypt? 

I presented this paper in the fall of 2009 at a conference on minorities and Islamic law in Kuala Lampur sponsored by the Muslim World League and the International Islamic University.  It was my first time in Malaysia, but given the time difference (13 hours), I didn’t get much of an opportunity to see much of Malaysia.  In any case, it appears that my paper will be published along with some of the other papers presented at that conference.  This amounts to a pleasant surprise.

Today’s remarkable decisions by the Supreme Constitutional Court of Egypt has dramatically upped the ante in Egypt’s runoff election between Muhammad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party, and Ahmed Shafik, the self-styled populist, Egyptian nationalist and plutocrat.  I do not wish to engage in a forensic analysis of what happened between February 11, 2011 and today in order to explain how Egypt got to this point or point fingers of blame.  The crucial issue now is what is the best course for Egyptians who are anti-ancien regime and wish to see Egypt progress into something resembling a progressive and prosperous republic in which all its citizens enjoy respect and basic rights. 

With the second-round of the historical Egyptian presidential election fast approaching, Egyptian activists are deeply divided, with some arguing in favor of one or another of the two candidates, on the grounds of choosing the lesser of two evils with disagreements over which candidate is the “lesser” of the evils, another group advocating a boycott of the final round, and a third advocating voters indicate their support for a “revolutionary” candidate by intentionally invalidating their ballots.  I, for one, have no doubt that the best outcome for the run-off, the one that maximizes the likelihood that the revolution will achieve its goals, is that Muhammad Mursi, the presidential candidate for the Muslim Brotherhood’s political party, the Freedom and Justice Party (“FJP”), defeats Ahmad Shafiq, an old regime stalwart and Hosni Mubarak’s last prime minister before being forced to resign by revolutionary forces. 

Here is a link to the final results as prepared by the reliable Iyad al-Baghdadi.

As of 4:30 pm, Egypt time:

16:30 FINAL Results in 25 governorates aggregated by Ahram Online shows that with about 41.8 per cent turnout, the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate Mohamed Mursi remains in the lead, followed by Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime minister, while the leftist candidate, Hamdeen Sabbahi, who proved to be the dark horse of the race, fell back to third place. Still waiting for Cairo and Giza results, which will be decisive.

Mursi 4,406,782 (26.48 per cent)
Shafiq 4,115,840 (24.74 per cent)
Sabbahi 3,329,519 (20.01 per cent)
Abul-Fotouh 2,959,937 (17.79 per cent)
Moussa 1,778,244 (10.69 per cent)

This is the latest that I have been able to find on the results, courtesy of Ahram Online.  It is important to bear in mind that the results from Cairo are not in.  That should represent another 6 million votes based on Alexandria’s turn out. If Cairenes voted like Alexandrians, it could push Shafiq down dramatically.

13:30 Final results aggregated by Ahram Online of counted votes in 18 out of 27 governorates (Daqahliya, Sharqiya, Alexandria, Beheira, Gharbiya, Minya, Sohag, Menoufiya, Kafr El-Sheikh, Qena, Beni Suef, Aswan, Damietta, Luxor, Port Said, Suez, Red Sea and South Sinai) show that with 41.6 per cent turnout, Brotherhood candidate Mursi is in first place, followed by Mubarak’s last prime minister Shafiq, while the Nasserist candidate Sabbahi, the surprise of this election so far, has fallen back into third place – after the totals of Sharqiya and Sohag governorates were announced.

The results thus far are as following:

1. Mursi 3,451,433 (25.59 per cent)
2. Shafiq 3,378,998 (25.05 per cent)
3. Sabbahi 2,862,143 (21.22 per cent)
4. Abul-Fotouh 2,362,956 (17.52 per cent)
5. Moussa 1,431,239 (10.61 per cent)
   

So, it now looks like Egyptians will be facing a referendum between Mubarak and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The results of the first round of Egypt’s historical presidential elections have resulted in an election that brings together the two most polarizing candidates in the field, Ahmad Shafiq and Muhammad Mursi. Unsurprisingly, many, including myself, are disappointed, if not depressed, at this outcome: essentially, one half of Egyptians are being asked to choose between two candidates that probably represented their last choice among all the original candidates.  There is a very real risk, in the light of this polarization, that Ahmad Shafiq will win, and the regime will be “vindicated.”  Indeed, I think a lot of people are certain that in a head to head match up between Shafiq and Mursi, Shafiq will win handily, the assumption being that the aversion to the Muslim Brotherhood — especially given its control of Parliament — will lead a majority of voters to hold their nose and vote for Shafiq.  While I hope this is not the case, I think this will be the probable outcome: a victory for Shafiq.  However, it nonetheless behooves us to consider why Shafiq might win, and what it means for Egyptian politics, and more importantly, Egypt’s short term future.