One Last Thought: “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold”

Jun 17

As Mahmoud Salem observed in a prescient piece published by The Daily Beast on May 23, 2012, he believed that candidates who were perceived as tacking to the center, such as `Amr Musa, Egyptia’s former foreign minister and head of the League of Arab States, and `Abd al-Mun`im Abu al-Futuh, the breakaway candidate from the Muslim Brotherhood, were not likely to do well in the context of Egypt’s fractured electorate. 

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Final Results

May 25

Here is a link to the final results as prepared by the reliable Iyad al-Baghdadi.

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Updated Results on Egypt’s Presidential Poll (courtesy Ahram Online); Cairo and Giza still not tallied

May 25

As of 4:30 pm, Egypt time:

 

16:30 FINAL Results in 25 governorates aggregated by Ahram Online shows that with about 41.8 per cent turnout, the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate Mohamed Mursi remains in the lead, followed by Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime minister, while the leftist candidate, Hamdeen Sabbahi, who proved to be the dark horse of the race, fell back to third place. Still waiting for Cairo and Giza results, which will be decisive.

Mursi 4,406,782 (26.48 per cent)
Shafiq 4,115,840 (24.74 per cent)
Sabbahi 3,329,519 (20.01 per cent)
Abul-Fotouh 2,959,937 (17.79 per cent)
Moussa 1,778,244 (10.69 per cent)

 

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Latest updates on first round of Egyptian Elections

May 25

This is the latest that I have been able to find on the results, courtesy of Ahram Online.  It is important to bear in mind that the results from Cairo are not in.  That should represent another 6 million votes based on Alexandria’s turn out. If Cairenes voted like Alexandrians, it could push Shafiq down dramatically.

13:30 Final results aggregated by Ahram Online of counted votes in 18 out of 27 governorates (Daqahliya, Sharqiya, Alexandria, Beheira, Gharbiya, Minya, Sohag, Menoufiya, Kafr El-Sheikh, Qena, Beni Suef, Aswan, Damietta, Luxor, Port Said, Suez, Red Sea and South Sinai) show that with 41.6 per cent turnout, Brotherhood candidate Mursi is in first place, followed by Mubarak’s last prime minister Shafiq, while the Nasserist candidate Sabbahi, the surprise of this election so far, has fallen back into third place – after the totals of Sharqiya and Sohag governorates were announced.

The results thus far are as following:

  1. Mursi 3,451,433 (25.59 per cent)
  2. Shafiq 3,378,998 (25.05 per cent)
  3. Sabbahi 2,862,143 (21.22 per cent)
  4. Abul-Fotouh 2,362,956 (17.52 per cent)
  5. Moussa 1,431,239 (10.61 per cent)
    table
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Some quick thoughts on the first round of Egypt’s Presidential Elections

May 25

So, it now looks like Egyptians will be facing a referendum between Mubarak and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The results of the first round of Egypt’s historical presidential elections have resulted in an election that brings together the two most polarizing candidates in the field, Ahmad Shafiq and Muhammad Mursi. Unsurprisingly, many, including myself, are disappointed, if not depressed, at this outcome: essentially, one half of Egyptians are being asked to choose between two candidates that probably represented their last choice among all the original candidates.  There is a very real risk, in the light of this polarization, that Ahmad Shafiq will win, and the regime will be “vindicated.”  Indeed, I think a lot of people are certain that in a head to head match up between Shafiq and Mursi, Shafiq will win handily, the assumption being that the aversion to the Muslim Brotherhood — especially given its control of Parliament — will lead a majority of voters to hold their nose and vote for Shafiq.  While I hope this is not the case, I think this will be the probable outcome: a victory for Shafiq.  However, it nonetheless behooves us to consider why Shafiq might win, and what it means for Egyptian politics, and more importantly, Egypt’s short term future. 

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